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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County Win | 54.9% | 65.4% | 10 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 47.6% | 57.1% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.5% | 58.5% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The model makes Stockport County 55% favourites here. Blackpool carry the 19% upset.
Stockport County have won three of their last five; Blackpool are unbeaten in their last four. Form gives little away going into this League One tie.
A razor-thin margin: Stockport County at 55%, but the draw sits at 26%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Stockport County are scoring 1.9 a game (1.9 of those at home) and Blackpool manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 61% of Stockport County's home games and 39% of Blackpool's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Stockport County are all-out attack: 1.9 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Blackpool, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Blackpool prefer to keep things tight (0.5 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Stockport County against this setup.
In the last 4 meetings: Stockport County have won 4, Blackpool 0, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 3 of the last 4 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Blackpool 1-2 Stockport County, Stockport County 1-0 Blackpool, Stockport County 2-1 Blackpool.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Stockport County Win | @1.57 | 54.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 25.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Blackpool Win | @5.00 | 19.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 54.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.11 | 45.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.43 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Stockport County the favourite with a 54.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Stockport County @ 1.57, Draw @ 3.90, Blackpool @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Stockport County vs Blackpool kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.6% probability.
Our top prediction is Stockport County to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.