Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
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Over 10.5 Match Corners
45% (model)
Corners: Sporting CP avg 5.0 for/5.5 against, Alverca avg 5.0 for/5.0 against → expected 10.3 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
55% (model)
Cards: Sporting CP avg 2.3/game, Alverca avg 2.7/game → expected 4.9 match cards
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Over 22.5 Match Fouls
42% (model)
Fouls: Sporting CP avg 13.0/game, Alverca avg 8.7/game → expected 21.7 match fouls
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Over 26.5 Match Shots
80% (model)
Shots: Sporting CP avg 17.0/game, Alverca avg 14.3/game → expected 31.3 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Analysing Sporting CP vs Alverca: Who Wins?
The model makes Sporting CP 69% favourites here. Alverca carry the 13% upset.
Sporting CP (2nd, 82 pts) host Alverca (11th, 39 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickSporting CP to win at @1.20. Model probability 69% vs implied 83%. The market is 14pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Sporting CP have won 13 of 17 at home (76%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
🚫
Poor Away Form
Alverca have won just 3 of 17 on the road. Travelling support won't expect much
📊
H2H Dominance
Sporting CP have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts
⚖
Class Gap
Goal difference tells the story: Sporting CP at +65 vs Alverca at -17. A chasm in quality
▸ Form & goals
Sporting CP's home record this season is formidable. W13 D2 L2 from 17, scoring 3.0 goals per game at home. Alverca, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W3 D4 L10 from 17 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
Goals look likely here. Sporting CP average 2.6 per game (3.0 at home) and Alverca chip in with 1.0 (1.0 away). Defensively, Sporting CP concede 0.6 at home and Alverca leak 1.7 on the road. We make it 67% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.8 goals when they meet, with 2 of the last 4 producing three or more.
▸ Team news & context
Sporting CP are in great shape right now, banging in 2.6 a game and only letting in 0.7. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
In the last 4 meetings: Sporting CP have won 3, Alverca 1, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 3.8 goals per game. 2 of the last 4 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Alverca 1-4 Sporting CP, Sporting CP 2-0 Alverca, Sporting CP 5-1 Alverca.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Sporting CP HT
1.55
-
Draw HT
2.88
-
Alverca HT
10.00
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Sporting CP vs Alverca Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Sporting CP Win |
@1.20
|
69.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@6.50
|
15.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Alverca Win |
@10.00
|
12.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.95
|
43.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.80
|
56.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.48
|
66.5% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.88
|
33.5% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.12
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@6.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.10
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.73
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Sporting CP vs Alverca Team Stats
Sporting CP
Position
2
Played
34
Record
25W-7D-2L
Goals F/A
89/24
Avg Goals Scored
2.60
Points
82
Overall Form
WDWWW
Home Form
WWWD
Home Record
13W-2D-2L
Alverca
Position
11
Played
34
Record
10W-9D-15L
Goals F/A
35/52
Avg Goals Scored
1.00
Points
39
Overall Form
DLLDL
Away Form
LLL
Away Record
3W-4D-10L
Sporting CP vs Alverca Head to Head
3 Home Wins
0 Draws
1 Away Wins
3.8
Avg Goals
2/4
BTTS
2/4
Over 2.5
2026-03-22
Sporting CP 4-1 Alverca
2025-10-31
Sporting CP 2-0 Alverca
2025-10-28
Sporting CP 5-1 Alverca
2019-10-17
Sporting CP 0-2 Alverca
Full Sporting CP vs Alverca head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.9%
3-1
6.7%
4-0
4.0%
4-1
3.4%
3-2
2.9%
5-0
1.7%
4-2
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 4.5 goals
Smart
81%
@1.30
Superbet
-
Over 7.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Nestory Irankunda 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Over 3.5 cards
75%
@1.33
Superbet
-
Luis Suarez 2+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
Combined 3.19
· £5 returns
£15.96
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Ivan Fresneda 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Flavio Goncalves 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 7.5 corners
85%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Alverca under 4 corners
85%
@1.18
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
84%
@1.28
Betano
-
Under 12.5 corners
84%
@1.33
Superbet
-
Over 1 second half goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Nestory Irankunda 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Luis Suarez 2+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Under 4.5 goals
81%
@1.30
Superbet
-
Alverca over 1.5 corners
81%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals
80%
@1.30
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →