Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
I
I. Bjerkebo
1+ Shots on Target
87% (model)
I. Bjerkebo averages 1.82 SoT/match (17 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
R
R. Ure
1+ Shots on Target
81% (model)
R. Ure averages 1.53 SoT/match (15 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
R
R. Ure
Anytime Scorer
75% (model)
R. Ure on 1.00 goals/match (15 apps), home vs opp conceding 1.70 goals/game
J
Julius Lindberg
1+ Shots on Target
68% (model)
Julius Lindberg averages 1.27 SoT/match (15 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
I
I. Bjerkebo
Anytime Scorer
66% (model)
I. Bjerkebo on 0.76 goals/match (17 apps), home vs opp conceding 1.70 goals/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Neighbours Collide: Sirius and BK Hacken Separated by Fine Margins
Sirius 50%, the draw 22%, BK Hacken 26%. That's the shape of this one.
There's barely anything between these two. Sirius (9th, 39 pts) and BK Hacken (10th, 35 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Allsvenskan table.
R. Ure has been Sirius's spearhead, with 15 goals and 2 assists in 15 appearances, averaging 1.53 shots on target per game. G. Lindgren has been BK Hacken's main threat, with 7 goals and 0 assists in 17 appearances, averaging 1.00 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.40. Model probability 70% vs implied 71%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
R
R. Ure
Sirius · Attacker
15 goals · 2 assists in 15 apps
1.5 shots on target a game
G
G. Lindgren
BK Hacken · Attacker
7 goals in 17 apps
1.0 shots on target a game
Key facts
📉
Due a Correction
Sirius scoring +0.3 more than their chances suggest while BK Hacken are scoring fewer than theirs by -0.5. Expect this gap to narrow
🔥
Chances Flowing
Sirius creating chances worth 2.6 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 79% of Sirius's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. Sirius come in on a L-D-W-W-W run, BK Hacken have gone W-L-D-D-W, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. Sirius's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. BK Hacken are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 2.1 against 1.4 actual goals). They look due a few more. Sirius have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.6 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 2.3. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sirius create chances worth 2.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. BK Hacken create 2.1 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of +0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Sirius. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. BK Hacken are creating chances worth 2.1 a game but only finishing 1.4. the underlying performance is better than the results show. Sirius are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.6 a game over the last 5 vs 2.3 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Sirius are scoring 1.8 a game (1.9 of those at home) and BK Hacken manage 1.4 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 69%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 70%. Sirius score in 90% of their games and BK Hacken in 70%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Sirius create chances worth 2.3 a game and BK Hacken 2.1. Combined, that's 4.4 a game from open play alone.
▸ Team news & context
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
Sirius are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.7 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at BK Hacken, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Sirius HT
2.15
-
Draw HT
2.62
-
BK Hacken HT
3.70
Top Anytime Scorers
-
R. Ure
75%
-
I. Bjerkebo
66%
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Sirius · xG
For: 2.29/g
Against: 1.24/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.34/g, possibly running hot
📊 BK Hacken · xG
For: 2.08/g
Against: 1.93/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.52/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Sirius vs BK Hacken Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Sirius Win |
@1.85
|
50.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
21.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
BK Hacken Win |
@3.50
|
26.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.40
|
70.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.80
|
30.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.40
|
68.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.95
|
31.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.11
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@6.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.83
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Sirius vs BK Hacken Team Stats
Sirius
Position
9
Played
30
Record
11W-6D-13L
Goals F/A
53/51
Avg Goals Scored
1.80
Points
39
Overall Form
LDWWW
Home Form
DWDWW
Home Record
7W-2D-6L
BK Hacken
Position
10
Played
30
Record
9W-8D-13L
Goals F/A
42/50
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Points
35
Overall Form
WLDDW
Away Form
LWLDW
Away Record
5W-4D-6L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.8%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
4.0%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
2.2%
4-2
1.7%
4-0
1.4%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Sirius or BK Hacken (double chance)
85%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Under 2.5 first half goals
85%
@1.22
Superbet
-
Sirius under 3 goals
85%
@1.18
1xBet
-
BK Hacken under 6 corners
84%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
83%
@1.25
Betano
-
Sirius or Draw (double chance)
83%
@1.31
Betano
-
Over 8 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
BK Hacken under 6.5 corners
83%
@1.24
Unibet
-
BK Hacken over 0.5 goals
82%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
82%
@1.32
Unibet
-
Sirius over 3.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Superbet
-
Sirius under 7.5 corners
81%
@1.28
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →