03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
48.1% |
57.8% |
10 pts under
|
| Shrewsbury Win |
23.4% |
31.1% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
50.2% |
53.5% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Shrewsbury Host Barnet: Our Prediction
The model makes Barnet 47% favourites here. Shrewsbury carry the 23% upset.
Barnet slight edge (47%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Shrewsbury are winless in their last four; Barnet have won three of their last four. The visitors bring the sharper form into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Barnet at 47%, but the draw sits at 29%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📊
H2H Dominance
Shrewsbury have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Shrewsbury are scoring 0.8 a game (0.8 of those at home) and Barnet manage 3.0 (3.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 35% of Shrewsbury's home games and 52% of Barnet's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Barnet have goals in them (3.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 5 meetings: Shrewsbury have won 4, Barnet 0, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.0 goals per game. 4 of the last 5 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Shrewsbury 0-0 Barnet, Barnet 1-3 Shrewsbury, Shrewsbury 3-0 Barnet.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Shrewsbury HT
4.00
-
Draw HT
2.15
-
Barnet HT
2.50
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Shrewsbury vs Barnet Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Shrewsbury Win |
@3.75
|
23.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
29.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Barnet Win |
@1.91
|
47.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
48.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
51.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.95
|
50.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.88
|
49.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.55
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Shrewsbury vs Barnet Head to Head
4 Home Wins
1 Draws
0 Away Wins
3.0
Avg Goals
3/5
BTTS
4/5
Over 2.5
2026-01-31
Shrewsbury 0-0 Barnet
2025-09-06
Shrewsbury 3-1 Barnet
2016-11-05
Shrewsbury 3-0 Barnet
2012-02-18
Shrewsbury 2-1 Barnet
2011-10-08
Shrewsbury 3-2 Barnet
Full Shrewsbury vs Barnet head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.7%
0-1
7.7%
1-3
7.3%
0-3
6.5%
1-4
4.1%
2-3
4.1%
0-4
3.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Barnet under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Barnet under 7 corners
84%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Shrewsbury or Barnet (double chance)
83%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
83%
@1.25
William Hill
-
Shrewsbury under 5 corners
83%
@1.21
1xBet
-
Under 11.5 corners
82%
@1.32
Superbet
-
Barnet over 4 corners
82%
@1.22
1xBet
-
Over 1.5 goals
80%
@1.32
Betano
-
Under 2 second half goals
80%
@1.25
Marathon Bet
-
Shrewsbury over 2.5 corners
80%
@1.30
Superbet
-
Under 3.5 goals
79%
@1.33
Pinnacle
-
Under 11 corners
79%
@1.27
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →