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The key duel: Guadalajara Chivas's attack against Santos Laguna's back line.
Santos Laguna take on Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Santos Laguna will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Guadalajara Chivas travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickGuadalajara Chivas to win at @1.62. Model probability 58% vs implied 62%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Santos Laguna are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Guadalajara Chivas manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 56%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Santos Laguna Win | @5.00 | 17.7% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 24.6% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Guadalajara Chivas Win | @1.62 | 57.7% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 49.3% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.07 | 50.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 55.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 44.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.47 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite with a 57.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Santos Laguna @ 5.00, Draw @ 4.00, Guadalajara Chivas @ 1.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.