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Three points on the line and a story to write. Necaxa host Leon.
Necaxa take on Leon in the Liga MX. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Necaxa will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Leon travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Necaxa are scoring 1.1 a game (1.1 of those at home) and Leon manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Necaxa Win | @2.10 | 39.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 25.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Leon Win | @2.90 | 42.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 52.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 47.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 52.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.10 | 48.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Leon the favourite with a 42.1% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Necaxa @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.10, Leon @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Necaxa vs Leon kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.