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The model makes Alloa Athletic 42% favourites here. Queen of the South carry the 29% upset.
Queen of the South have lost four of their last six; Alloa Athletic have taken 8 points from their last six. Form gives little away going into this Scottish League One tie.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Queen of the South are scoring 1.7 a game (1.7 of those at home) and Alloa Athletic manage 1.2 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
In the last 10 meetings: Queen of the South have won 5, Alloa Athletic 1, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.4 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Alloa Athletic 1-4 Queen of the South, Queen of the South 1-2 Alloa Athletic, Alloa Athletic 0-2 Queen of the South.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Queen of the South Win | @2.62 | 29.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 29.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Alloa Athletic Win | @2.62 | 41.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.90 | 52.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.93 | 48.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.60 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.35 | - | Bet365 |
Full Queen of the South vs Alloa Athletic head-to-head history →
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Alloa Athletic the favourite with a 41.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Queen of the South @ 2.62, Draw @ 3.00, Alloa Athletic @ 2.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Queen of the South vs Alloa Athletic kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Scottish League One.