01The read
Utrecht Host PSV Eindhoven: Our Prediction
The model makes PSV Eindhoven 58% favourites here. Utrecht carry the 17% upset.
Utrecht (6th, 53 pts) host PSV Eindhoven (1st, 84 pts) in the Eredivisie. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickPSV Eindhoven to win at @1.67. Model probability 58% vs implied 60%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
✈
Strong Travellers
PSV Eindhoven win 82% of their away games (W14 from 17). Dangerous visitors
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Utrecht's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
PSV Eindhoven are no pushovers away from home. W14 D1 L2 from 17 away trips, scoring 2.5 per game on the road. Utrecht (W11 D3 L4 at home) can't afford to take this lightly.
Goals look likely here. Utrecht average 1.6 per game (1.9 at home) and PSV Eindhoven chip in with 3.0 (2.5 away). Defensively, Utrecht concede 0.8 at home and PSV Eindhoven leak 1.1 on the road. We make it 70% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 69%. Utrecht score in 83% of their games and PSV Eindhoven in 97%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
▸ Team news & context
Promotion is on the line. Utrecht (6th) and PSV Eindhoven (1st) are both in the playoff places. This could determine who goes up.
PSV Eindhoven have goals in them (3.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Utrecht HT
4.20
-
Draw HT
2.62
-
PSV Eindhoven HT
2.00
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Utrecht Win |
@4.20
|
17.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.00
|
22.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
PSV Eindhoven Win |
@1.67
|
58.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.40
|
69.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.70
|
30.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.36
|
69.7% |
BetVictor |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@3.10
|
30.3% |
BetVictor |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.07
|
- |
BetVictor |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@7.00
|
- |
BetVictor |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@1.91
|
- |
BetVictor |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.85
|
- |
BetVictor |
05The numbers
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven Team Stats
Utrecht
Position
6
Played
36
Record
16W-8D-12L
Goals F/A
59/46
Avg Goals Scored
1.60
Points
53
Overall Form
DLLDW
Home Form
LWWW
Home Record
11W-3D-4L
PSV Eindhoven
Position
1
Played
34
Record
27W-3D-4L
Goals F/A
101/45
Avg Goals Scored
3.00
Points
84
Overall Form
WWDWW
Away Form
WWD
Away Record
14W-1D-2L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.2%
1-3
6.6%
2-3
4.8%
0-3
4.5%
1-4
3.5%
2-4
2.6%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 11 priced markets
-
PSV Eindhoven or Draw (double chance)
84%
@1.24
Betano
-
PSV Eindhoven under 3 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Utrecht over 0.5 goals
80%
@1.30
Pinnacle
-
Under 4.5 goals
78%
@1.38
10Bet
-
Under 2 first half goals
77%
@1.33
BetVictor
-
Over 2.5 goals
75%
@1.40
Pinnacle
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
74%
@1.45
10Bet
-
Over 1 first half goals
74%
@1.44
Betano
-
Both teams to score: Yes
72%
@1.44
Betano
-
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 goals
71%
@1.47
Betano
-
Under 4 goals
69%
@1.52
Betano
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