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Wolves arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
A EFL Cup fixture between Wolves and Port Vale. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Wolves will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Port Vale travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickWolves to win at @1.35. Model probability 63% vs implied 74%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Wolves average 0.0 goals per game and Port Vale manage 0.9. Combined that's just 0.9. We make it only 61% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Wolves do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Port Vale prefer to keep things tight (0.9 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Wolves against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Wolves Win | @1.35 | 62.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.80 | 22.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Port Vale Win | @8.00 | 14.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.83 | 45.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 54.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.57 | 61.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.35 | 39.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.18 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.55 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Wolves the favourite with a 62.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Wolves @ 1.35, Draw @ 4.80, Port Vale @ 8.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Wolves vs Port Vale kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 19:45 in the EFL Cup.