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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford City Win | 52.0% | 62.1% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51.4% | 57.1% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Bradford City and Peterborough United meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Bradford City take on Peterborough United in the League One. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Bradford City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Peterborough United travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Bradford City at 52%, but the draw sits at 24%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Bradford City average 1.0 goals per game and Peterborough United manage 0.9. Combined that's just 1.9. We make it only 51% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 52% of Bradford City's home games and 61% of Peterborough United's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bradford City Win | @1.70 | 52.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 24.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Peterborough United Win | @4.80 | 23.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 51.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.85 | 48.6% | William Hill |
Our model makes Bradford City the favourite with a 52.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Bradford City @ 1.70, Draw @ 3.40, Peterborough United @ 4.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Bradford City vs Peterborough United kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Bradford City to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.