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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 57.6% | 69.0% | 11 pts under |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 53.5% | 61.7% | 8 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66.1% | 70.9% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Philadelphia Union arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
Philadelphia Union take on New York Red Bulls in the MLS. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Philadelphia Union will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while New York Red Bulls travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Philadelphia Union edge it at 54% but a draw (23%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.48. Model probability 66% vs implied 68%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
Philadelphia Union's home record this season is formidable. W13 D4 L2 from 19, scoring 2.0 goals per game at home. New York Red Bulls, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W2 D4 L11 from 17 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. A concern for New York Red Bulls: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Philadelphia Union create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. New York Red Bulls create 0.9 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.7. The underlying numbers clearly favour Philadelphia Union. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. New York Red Bulls's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Philadelphia Union are scoring 1.7 a game (2.1 of those at home) and New York Red Bulls manage 1.4 (0.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 58%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Philadelphia Union Win | @1.67 | 53.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.80 | 22.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | New York Red Bulls Win | @4.33 | 23.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.50 | 57.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.45 | 42.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 66.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.70 | 33.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite with a 53.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Philadelphia Union @ 1.67, Draw @ 3.80, New York Red Bulls @ 4.33. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 57.6% probability.
Our top prediction is Philadelphia Union to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.