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New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union prediction and betting tips?

This fixture is in a league we are still building a verified record on, so we show the bookmaker odds and an early read rather than a rated pick. Our tracked, verified predictions cover the major leagues, all recorded on our accuracy page.

70% verified · 831 picks MLS Sunday 30 August 2026, 00:30

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Predictions & Odds

N New York Red Bulls 28.5% @2.90

VS Draw 23.9%

P Philadelphia Union 45.6% @2.10

Our model call Model leans Philadelphia Union A 46% call, draw at 24%.

Match result modelmarket

New York Red Bulls 28% 2.90 Draw 24% 3.60 Philadelphia Union 46% 2.10

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 33% 2.95 Over 2.5 67% 1.44 Over 1.5 @1.12

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 30% 2.88 Yes 70% 1.36

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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Player Form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

M. Iloski

1+ Shots on Target

70% (model)

M. Iloski averages 1.33 SoT/match (21 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game

J. Hall

1+ Shots on Target

65% (model)

J. Hall averages 0.95 SoT/match (21 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game

J. Ruvalcaba

1+ Shots on Target

61% (model)

J. Ruvalcaba averages 0.85 SoT/match (20 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game

C. Cowell

1+ Shots on Target

58% (model)

C. Cowell averages 0.79 SoT/match (19 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game

E. Forsberg

1+ Shots on Target

54% (model)

E. Forsberg averages 0.70 SoT/match (20 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game

Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Key Stats

01The read

Can Philadelphia Union Get the Job Done at New York Red Bulls?

The model makes Philadelphia Union 46% favourites here. New York Red Bulls carry the 29% upset.

New York Red Bulls have lost four of their last six; Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this MLS tie.

J. Hall has been New York Red Bulls's spearhead, with 9 goals and 3 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 0.95 shots on target per game. M. Iloski has been Philadelphia Union's main threat, with 10 goals and 2 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 1.33 shots on target per game.

Our pick Tracking this league

Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.36. Model probability 71% vs implied 74%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.

Model71%

Market74%

Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.

Key men

J. Hall New York Red Bulls · Attacker

9 goals · 3 assists in 21 apps

1.0 shots on target a game

M. Iloski Philadelphia Union · Attacker

10 goals · 2 assists in 21 apps

1.3 shots on target a game

Key facts

✈

Strong Travellers Philadelphia Union win 50% of their away games (W9 from 18). Dangerous visitors

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 67% of New York Red Bulls's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

▸ Form & goals

Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. New York Red Bulls come in on a D-L-L-W-L-L run, Philadelphia Union have gone D-W-W-W-W, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. New York Red Bulls's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

New York Red Bulls create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Philadelphia Union create 1.7 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, Philadelphia Union look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.

Goals are a tough one to call here. New York Red Bulls are scoring 1.4 a game (2.1 of those at home) and Philadelphia Union manage 1.7 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 67%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 71%. New York Red Bulls score in 74% of their games and Philadelphia Union in 76%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

New York Red Bulls HT 3.00
Draw HT 2.60
Philadelphia Union HT 2.50

Team Intel

📊 New York Red Bulls · xG

For: 1.21/g Against: 1.58/g

💎 Underscoring xG by 0.31/g, value possible

📊 Philadelphia Union · xG

For: 1.72/g Against: 1.38/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	New York Red Bulls Win	@2.90	28.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.60	23.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Philadelphia Union Win	@2.10	45.6%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.36	70.5%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.88	29.5%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.44	67.4%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.95	32.6%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.12	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@6.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.80	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

New York Red Bulls

Red hot form 1 unbeaten

Last 6 DLLWLL

Clean sheets 29% BTTS 67% FTS 26%

Philadelphia Union

Red hot form 5 unbeaten

Last 5 DWWWW

On the road WLLLL

Clean sheets 40% BTTS 75% FTS 24%

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Team Stats

New York Red Bulls

Played 34

Record 12W-7D-15L

Goals F/A 48/47

Avg Goals Scored 1.40

Overall Form DLLWLL

Home Record 10W-3D-4L

Philadelphia Union

Played 37

Record 22W-6D-9L

Goals F/A 63/38

Avg Goals Scored 1.70

Overall Form DWWWW

Away Form WLLLL

Away Record 9W-2D-7L

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-2 9.2%

1-3 4.8%

0-3 4.0%

2-3 2.9%

1-4 1.8%

0-4 1.5%

2-4 1.1%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices

Under 4.5 goals 79% @1.34 Betano
Over 7.5 corners Smart 83% @1.24 Betano
Bruno Damiani 1+ shots on target 80% @1.25 Bet365
Ezekiel Alladoh 1+ shots on target 80% @1.25 Bet365
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 1+ shots on target 80% @1.25 Bet365

Combined 3.25 · £5 returns £16.23

Market singles 12 priced markets

New York Red Bulls or Philadelphia Union (double chance) 85% @1.27 Superbet
New York Red Bulls under 2.5 goals 84% @1.24 Betano
Over 0.5 first half goals 83% @1.27 Betano
Julian Hall 2+ shots 83% @1.20 Bet365
Jorge Ruvalcaba 2+ shots 83% @1.20 Bet365
Philadelphia Union over 1 goals 83% @1.20 Marathon Bet
Over 7.5 corners 83% @1.24 Betano
Under 12.5 total shots (on + off target) 81% @1.24 Unibet
Bruno Damiani 1+ shots on target 80% @1.25 Bet365
Ezekiel Alladoh 1+ shots on target 80% @1.25 Bet365
Under 4.5 goals 79% @1.34 Betano
Under 2 first half goals 78% @1.32 BetVictor

Build a slip from these markets →

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Our New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 80% @ 1.26
2 Both Teams to Score 72% @ 1.39
3 Under 3.5 Goals 57% @ 1.75

@3.06 £10 returns £30.58

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The record

70%

verified hit rate across 831 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: FAQs

Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?

Our model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite with a 45.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.

What are the best odds for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?

Best available odds: New York Red Bulls @ 2.90, Draw @ 3.60, Philadelphia Union @ 2.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union kick off?

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Predictions & Odds

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Player Form

Key Stats

Can Philadelphia Union Get the Job Done at New York Red Bulls?

First Half Result

Latest News

Team Intel

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Odds Comparison

Recent Form

New York Red Bulls

Philadelphia Union

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Team Stats

New York Red Bulls

Philadelphia Union

Most Likely Scorelines

Full Market Breakdown

Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices

Market singles 12 priced markets

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New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: FAQs

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