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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Cruzeiro host Mirassol.
A Brasileirão Série A clash between two sides separated by just 1 place in the table. Cruzeiro (3rd, 70 pts) and Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) both have plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Cruzeiro will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Mirassol travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Cruzeiro will be looking to make home advantage count (W13 D4 L2 at home). Mirassol's away record reads W6 D6 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. A concern for Mirassol: they're giving up chances worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.2 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Cruzeiro create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Mirassol create 1.5 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Mirassol's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 vs 1.2 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Cruzeiro are scoring 1.4 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Mirassol manage 1.7 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%. Two or more goals at @1.30 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Matches involving Cruzeiro always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Mirassol will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
Both sides are in the chasing pack. Cruzeiro (3rd) and Mirassol (4th) are still in touch with the playoff places, and a result here matters.
Cruzeiro do it the hard way: only 1.4 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
If you like Cruzeiro but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.18 , which pays out if Cruzeiro win or draw, covers 79% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cruzeiro Win | @1.70 | 54.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Mirassol Win | @4.60 | 17.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.85 | 44.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.83 | 55.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.88 | 50.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.53 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Cruzeiro the favourite with a 54.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Cruzeiro @ 1.70, Draw @ 3.50, Mirassol @ 4.60. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.