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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45.5% | 62.5% | 17 pts under |
| Middlesbrough Win | 64.4% | 78.1% | 14 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Middlesbrough know what's at stake, and so do Lincoln City.
A Championship clash between two sides separated by just 0 places in the table. Middlesbrough (1st, 0 pts) and Lincoln City (1st, 0 pts) both have plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Middlesbrough will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Lincoln City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
We lean towards Middlesbrough at 64%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.
Our PickMiddlesbrough to win at @1.35. Model probability 64% vs implied 74%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Middlesbrough are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Lincoln City manage 2.3 (2.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 46%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 48% of Middlesbrough's home games and 39% of Lincoln City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The stakes are high for Middlesbrough at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Lincoln City face a tough afternoon.
This has title race implications written all over it. Middlesbrough sit 1st while Lincoln City are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Lincoln City have goals in them (2.3 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 1-0 (6%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Middlesbrough Win | @1.35 | 64.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.80 | 19.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Lincoln City Win | @8.00 | 16.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.62 | 45.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.15 | 54.5% | William Hill |
Our model makes Middlesbrough the favourite with a 64.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Middlesbrough @ 1.35, Draw @ 4.80, Lincoln City @ 8.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Middlesbrough vs Lincoln City kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Middlesbrough to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.