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Form, fitness, fine margins. Maritimo and Casa Pia meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A Primeira Liga fixture between Maritimo and Casa Pia. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Maritimo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Casa Pia travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Maritimo average 0.0 goals per game and Casa Pia manage 0.9. Combined that's just 0.9. We make it only 50% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
Maritimo do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Maritimo Win | @2.45 | 29.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 26.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Casa Pia Win | @2.80 | 42.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 50.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 49.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 49.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.89 | 50.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.34 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Casa Pia the favourite with a 42.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Maritimo @ 2.45, Draw @ 3.20, Casa Pia @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Maritimo vs Casa Pia kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:30 in the Primeira Liga.