03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Atletico Madrid Win |
65.6% |
80.0% |
14 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
55.4% |
59.5% |
4 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
50.0% |
46.5% |
3 pts over
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Atletico Madrid vs Malaga: Can the Hosts Deliver?
The model makes Atletico Madrid 66% favourites here. Malaga carry the 13% upset.
Atletico Madrid to win (66%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Atletico Madrid at @1.30 for this La Liga tie, with Malaga out at @10.00.
Our verdict
We lean towards Atletico Madrid at 66%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.
Our pick
Our PickAtletico Madrid to win at @1.30. Model probability 66% vs implied 77%. The market is 11pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 55% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Atletico Madrid average 1.3 goals per game and Malaga manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.3. Even so, we make it 55% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
▸ Team news & context
Malaga prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Atletico Madrid against this setup.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (4%) and 3-0 (1%).
First Half Result
-
Atletico Madrid HT
1.73
-
Draw HT
2.45
-
Malaga HT
9.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Atletico Madrid · xG
For: 1.48/g
Against: 1.85/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Atletico Madrid vs Malaga Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Atletico Madrid Win |
@1.30
|
65.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@5.00
|
21.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Malaga Win |
@10.00
|
13.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.15
|
50.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.67
|
50.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.73
|
55.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.17
|
44.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.45
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
4.1%
3-0
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Over 1.5 goals
Smart
84%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Malaga under 4.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.20
Betano
-
Julian Alvarez 1+ shots on target
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Carlos Martin 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Ademola Lookman 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
Combined 2.74
· £5 returns
£13.72
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Malaga under 4.5 corners
85%
@1.20
Betano
-
Over 1.5 goals
84%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Malaga under 1 goals
84%
@1.24
1xBet
-
Atletico Madrid over 4.5 corners
84%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
83%
@1.26
Betano
-
Eneko Jauregui 1+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Adrian Nino 1+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Julian Alvarez 1+ shots on target
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Under 12.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Malaga over 1.5 corners
83%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Carlos Martin 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.26
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →