Who is favourite to win Luton vs Notts County?

Our model rates Luton as the favourite with a 55.0% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Luton 55.0%, draw 25.5%, Notts County 19.5%.

Where can I watch Luton vs Notts County?

Check official League One broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Luton vs Notts County?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 55.7% probability and Under 2.5 goals 44.3%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

69% verified · 778 picks League One Saturday 22 August 2026, 12:30

Luton vs Notts County Predictions & Odds

L Luton 55.0% @1.60

VS Draw 25.5%

N Notts County 19.5% @4.80

Our model call Clear favourites: Luton A 55% call, draw at 26%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Luton 55% 1.60 Draw 26% 3.80 Notts County 20% 4.80

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 44% 2.20 Over 2.5 56% 1.73 Over 1.5 @1.22

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 51% 2.00 Yes 49% 1.73

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

69% verified · logged before kick-off

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Luton Win	55.0%	64.9%	10 pts under
Both Teams to Score	49.0%	58.8%	10 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	55.7%	59.9%	4 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 61% of Luton home games

🔥 Luton are on a 4-game winning streak

01The read

Luton vs Notts County: Match Preview & Prediction

Luton 55%, the draw 26%, Notts County 20%. That's the shape of this one.

Luton slight edge (55%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Luton have won four straight; Notts County are unbeaten in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this League One tie.

Our verdict

The data leans towards Luton (55%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Notts County have the tools to make this uncomfortable.

Our pick

Our PickLuton to win at @1.60. Model probability 55% vs implied 63%. The market is 8pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model55%

Market63%

Key facts

🤝

Draw Merchants 3 draws from 6 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here

🔥

Hot Streak Luton have won 4 in a row. Momentum is real

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 56% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

Goals look likely here. Luton average 3.0 per game (3.0 at home) and Notts County chip in with 1.1 (1.1 away). Defensively, Luton concede 1.5 at home and Notts County leak 0.4 on the road. We make it 56% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.

Both teams score in 61% of Luton's home games and 52% of Notts County's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Luton are all-out attack: 3.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.5 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Notts County, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Notts County prefer to keep things tight (0.4 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Luton against this setup.

In the last 6 meetings: Luton have won 1, Notts County 2, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.0 goals per game. 2 of the last 6 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Notts County 0-0 Luton, Luton 1-1 Notts County, Luton 2-1 Notts County.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Luton HT 2.15
Draw HT 2.30
Notts County HT 4.60

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Luton vs Notts County Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Luton Win	@1.60	55.0%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.80	25.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Notts County Win	@4.80	19.5%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.73	49.0%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.00	51.0%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.73	55.7%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.20	44.3%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.22	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.75	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.46	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Luton

4W streak

Last 4 WWWW

Clean sheets 28% BTTS 54% FTS 20%

Notts County

5 unbeaten

Last 5 DDWDW

Clean sheets 28% BTTS 57% FTS 17%

Luton vs Notts County Head to Head

1 Home Wins 3 Draws 2 Away Wins

2.0 Avg Goals

3/6 BTTS

2/6 Over 2.5

2018-05-05 Luton 0-0 Notts County

2017-12-09 Luton 1-1 Notts County

2017-04-22 Luton 2-1 Notts County

2016-10-29 Luton 0-0 Notts County

2016-01-30 Luton 0-2 Notts County

2015-09-12 Luton 2-3 Notts County

Full Luton vs Notts County head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 9.3%

3-1 5.3%

3-0 4.0%

3-2 3.5%

4-1 2.3%

4-0 1.7%

4-2 1.5%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Notts County under 5 corners 85% @1.18 1xBet
Under 2.5 second half goals 83% @1.26 Betano
Under 12 corners 83% @1.20 1xBet
Notts County under 1.5 goals 82% @1.29 Betano
Over 7.5 corners 82% @1.33 Superbet
Over 2 goals 78% @1.33 BetVictor
Luton over 4.5 corners 78% @1.44 Superbet
Luton under 7.5 corners 78% @1.36 1xBet
Notts County under 4.5 corners 78% @1.48 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 77% @1.37 Betano
Over 1 second half goals 77% @1.30 Marathon Bet
Luton under 2.5 goals 76% @1.38 Marathon Bet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Luton v Notts County builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 80% @ 1.25
2 Over 1.5 Goals 78% @ 1.28

@1.60 £10 returns £15.99

View full breakdown

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 778 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Luton vs Notts County: FAQs

Who will win Luton vs Notts County?

Our model makes Luton the favourite with a 55.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Luton vs Notts County?

Best available odds: Luton @ 1.60, Draw @ 3.80, Notts County @ 4.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Luton vs Notts County kick off?

Luton vs Notts County kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League One.

Will both teams score in Luton vs Notts County?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.0% probability.

Luton vs Notts County prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Luton to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.