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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 48.7% | 58.5% | 10 pts under |
| Leon Win | 44.6% | 51.3% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.7% | 54.1% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Leon know what's at stake, and so do Atlas.
A Liga MX fixture between Leon and Atlas. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Leon will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Atlas travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Leon at 45%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 51% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Leon Win | @1.95 | 44.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atlas Win | @3.40 | 27.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.73 | 48.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 51.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.87 | 49.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.34 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Leon the favourite with a 44.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Leon @ 1.95, Draw @ 3.00, Atlas @ 3.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Leon vs Atlas kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.7% probability.
Our top prediction is Leon to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.