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Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Atlante FC 28%, the draw 29%, Leon 43%. That's the shape of this one.
Atlante FC have taken 8 points from their last five; Leon have won five straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Liga MX tie.
J. Julio has been Atlante FC's spearhead, with 1 goals and 2 assists in 5 appearances, averaging 0.80 shots on target per game. D. Arcila has been Leon's main threat, with 3 goals and 0 assists in 5 appearances, averaging 1.20 shots on target per game.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Atlante FC are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Leon manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Atlante FC Win | @2.60 | 28.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 28.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Leon Win | @2.40 | 43.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.57 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.20 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 55.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.10 | 44.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 2.84 · £5 returns £14.18
Our model makes Leon the favourite with a 43.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Atlante FC @ 2.60, Draw @ 3.00, Leon @ 2.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Atlante FC vs Leon kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.