03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Leicester Win |
58.2% |
70.4% |
12 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
53.1% |
62.1% |
9 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
54.3% |
58.8% |
5 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 70% of Leicester home games
01The read
Leicester vs Burton Albion: Match Preview & Prediction
Leicester 58%, the draw 24%, Burton Albion 18%. That's the shape of this one.
Leicester slight edge (58%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Leicester are unbeaten in their last four; Burton Albion are winless in their last four. The momentum is with the hosts going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
Leicester shade it at 58%, though Burton Albion won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Leicester with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickLeicester to win at @1.53. Model probability 58% vs implied 65%. The market is 7pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
📊
H2H Dominance
Leicester have won 4 of the last 6 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 72% of Leicester's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Leicester average 1.0 goals per game and Burton Albion manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it 53% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 70% of Leicester's home games and 57% of Burton Albion's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Leicester do it the hard way: only 1.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.5 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
In the last 6 meetings: Leicester have won 4, Burton Albion 1, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 3 of the last 6 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Burton Albion 0-3 Leicester, Burton Albion 0-2 Leicester, Burton Albion 0-0 Leicester.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Leicester HT
2.10
-
Draw HT
2.38
-
Burton Albion HT
4.80
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Leicester · xG
For: 1.72/g
Against: 1.10/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.72/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Leicester vs Burton Albion Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Leicester Win |
@1.53
|
58.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.00
|
23.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Burton Albion Win |
@5.00
|
17.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
54.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
45.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
53.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.21
|
46.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.46
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Leicester vs Burton Albion Head to Head
4 Home Wins
1 Draws
1 Away Wins
2.8
Avg Goals
2/6
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2026-07-18
Leicester 3-0 Burton Albion
2023-08-09
Leicester 2-0 Burton Albion
2021-07-24
Leicester 0-0 Burton Albion
2019-10-29
Leicester 3-1 Burton Albion
2013-01-05
Leicester 2-0 Burton Albion
2012-08-28
Leicester 2-4 Burton Albion
Full Leicester vs Burton Albion head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
14.9%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-0
3.9%
3-1
3.4%
3-2
1.5%
4-0
1.2%
4-1
1.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 4 goals
85%
@1.22
BetVictor
-
Leicester under 8.5 corners
84%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Over 8 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Under 12.5 corners
83%
@1.26
Betano
-
Burton Albion under 1.5 goals
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Burton Albion under 5 corners
82%
@1.22
1xBet
-
Leicester over 4.5 corners
80%
@1.42
Unibet
-
Over 2 goals
79%
@1.31
BetVictor
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
78%
@1.35
Betano
-
Over 1 second half goals
77%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Burton Albion over 2.5 corners
75%
@1.37
Superbet
Build a slip from these markets →