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All eyes on Gillingham as Luton travel to face Gillingham.
A EFL Cup fixture between Gillingham and Luton. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Gillingham will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Luton travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickLuton to win at @1.75. Model probability 55% vs implied 57%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Gillingham are scoring 1.2 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Luton manage 2.3 (2.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 51%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Luton have goals in them (2.3 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Gillingham Win | @4.50 | 17.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 27.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Luton Win | @1.75 | 55.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 48.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 51.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 51.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.95 | 48.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Luton the favourite with a 55.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Gillingham @ 4.50, Draw @ 3.60, Luton @ 1.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Gillingham vs Luton kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 in the EFL Cup.