01The read
Momentum Swings: FK Crvena Zvezda Fancy Their Chances at Wobbly Plzen
Too close to call on the numbers. Plzen 42%, FK Crvena Zvezda 41%, the draw live at 26%.
There's barely anything between these two. Plzen (14th, 14 pts) and FK Crvena Zvezda (15th, 14 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Europa League table.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.53. Model probability 62% vs implied 65%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
Plzen keep clean sheets in 50% of games. One of the tightest defences around
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 62% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
The travelling FK Crvena Zvezda fans arrive with a spring in their step, and rightly so. recent form reads W-L-W-L-W. That W-L-W-L-W away form is genuinely impressive. Plzen have been wobbling (L-W-D-D-L) recent form reads L-W-D-D-L. But home crowds have a way of dragging a side through, and Plzen will fancy that their own supporters can be the difference when it matters. Interestingly, Plzen have been poor at home recently while FK Crvena Zvezda travel well. the visitors' away form is superior to the hosts' home record.
Plzen average 1.1 goals per game and FK Crvena Zvezda manage 0.8. Combined that's just 1.9. Even so, we make it 62% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 57%.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
Plzen do it the hard way: only 1.1 a game up top, but a mean 0.7 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. FK Crvena Zvezda prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Plzen against this setup. Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Plzen but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.33 , which pays out if Plzen win or draw, covers 68% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (6%) and 1-2 (5%).
First Half Result
-
Plzen HT
2.45
-
Draw HT
2.38
-
FK Crvena Zvezda HT
3.50
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Plzen Win |
@2.05
|
41.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
25.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
FK Crvena Zvezda Win |
@3.00
|
41.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.53
|
56.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.30
|
43.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.53
|
62.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.38
|
38.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.57
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda Team Stats
Plzen
Position
14
Played
10
Record
3W-6D-1L
Goals F/A
11/7
Avg Goals Scored
1.10
Points
14
Overall Form
LWDDL
Home Record
1W-3D-1L
FK Crvena Zvezda
Position
15
Played
10
Record
5W-2D-3L
Goals F/A
8/8
Avg Goals Scored
0.80
Points
14
Overall Form
WLWLW
Away Record
3W-0D-2L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
6.2%
1-2
4.9%
3-0
2.6%
2-2
2.3%
3-1
2.0%
0-3
1.3%
1-3
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2 first half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Plzen under 2.5 goals
81%
@1.30
Bet365
-
Over 2 goals
81%
@1.29
BetVictor
-
Under 4 goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.33
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.33
Betano
-
Plzen or FK Crvena Zvezda (double chance)
80%
@1.30
William Hill
-
FK Crvena Zvezda over 0.5 goals
80%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Over 1 second half goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Plzen over 1 goals
78%
@1.29
Marathon Bet
-
Plzen or Draw (double chance)
75%
@1.37
1xBet
-
Both teams to score: Yes
68%
@1.53
William Hill
Build a slip from these markets →