01The read
Toluca vs FC Juarez: Match Preview & Prediction
The model makes Toluca 66% favourites here. FC Juarez carry the 13% upset.
Toluca have won three of their last five; FC Juarez have lost five in a row. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Liga MX tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickToluca to win at @1.22. Model probability 66% vs implied 82%. The market is 16pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
📉
Cold Run
FC Juarez have lost their last 5. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 73% of FC Juarez's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Toluca average 1.6 goals per game and FC Juarez manage 0.9. Combined that's just 2.5. Even so, we make it 70% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.1 goals when they meet, with 6 of the last 10 producing three or more.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 10 meetings: Toluca have won 6, FC Juarez 1, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 3.1 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Toluca 3-1 FC Juarez, Toluca 0-0 FC Juarez, FC Juarez 1-2 Toluca.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Toluca HT
1.57
-
Draw HT
2.80
-
FC Juarez HT
8.00
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Toluca vs FC Juarez Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Toluca Win |
@1.22
|
66.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@5.50
|
21.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
FC Juarez Win |
@9.00
|
12.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.70
|
52.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
47.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.48
|
69.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@3.04
|
30.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.12
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@6.54
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.10
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.85
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Toluca vs FC Juarez Head to Head
6 Home Wins
3 Draws
1 Away Wins
3.1
Avg Goals
6/10
BTTS
6/10
Over 2.5
2026-03-08
Toluca 3-1 FC Juarez
2025-11-30
Toluca 0-0 FC Juarez
2025-11-27
Toluca 2-1 FC Juarez
2025-08-12
Toluca 2-0 FC Juarez
2025-02-22
Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez
2024-07-14
Toluca 3-2 FC Juarez
2024-03-09
Toluca 1-1 FC Juarez
2023-07-16
Toluca 2-4 FC Juarez
2023-04-23
Toluca 1-1 FC Juarez
2022-10-09
Toluca 3-0 FC Juarez
Full Toluca vs FC Juarez head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.6%
3-1
7.6%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4.5%
3-2
4.2%
4-0
4.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-1
2.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 4.5 goals
78%
@1.36
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Ivan Lopez 1+ shots on target
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Nicolas Castro 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Jesus Ricardo Angulo 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
Combined 3.01
· £5 returns
£15.05
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2.5 first half goals
85%
@1.21
Betano
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
85%
@1.24
Betano
-
FC Juarez under 1.5 goals
85%
@1.24
1xBet
-
Nicolas Castro 3+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 7.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Sebastian Aceves 1+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Ivan Lopez 1+ shots on target
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Toluca to win
82%
@1.33
Bet365
-
FC Juarez under 4.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Toluca over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.33
Bet365
-
Toluca under 3.5 goals
80%
@1.35
Betano
-
Nicolas Castro 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →