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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.8% | 62.1% | 10 pts under |
| FC Juarez Win | 53.2% | 61.7% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55.7% | 59.9% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
FC Juarez know what's at stake, and so do Puebla.
FC Juarez take on Puebla in the Liga MX. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. FC Juarez will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Puebla travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: FC Juarez at 53%, but the draw sits at 24%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 56% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Juarez Win | @1.62 | 53.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 23.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Puebla Win | @4.40 | 23.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 48.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 55.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.15 | 44.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.47 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes FC Juarez the favourite with a 53.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: FC Juarez @ 1.62, Draw @ 3.60, Puebla @ 4.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
FC Juarez vs Puebla kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.8% probability.
Our top prediction is FC Juarez to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.