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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 25.3% | 31.2% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46.3% | 47.6% | 1 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Espanyol host Levante.
Espanyol (11th, 46 pts) host Levante (18th, 42 pts) in the La Liga. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Espanyol will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Levante travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Espanyol at 50%, but the draw sits at 25%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The gap in chance quality is clear: Levante come out at +0.5 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Espanyol create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Levante create 1.7 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.5. On the quality of chances, Levante look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Espanyol average 1.1 goals per game and Levante manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 46% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%.
Both teams score in 53% of Espanyol's home games and 47% of Levante's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Levante travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 18th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Espanyol Win | @2.05 | 49.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 25.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Levante Win | @3.80 | 25.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.20 | 46.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.65 | 53.7% | William Hill |
Our model makes Espanyol the favourite with a 49.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Espanyol @ 2.05, Draw @ 3.20, Levante @ 3.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Espanyol vs Levante kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 18:00 in the La Liga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 46.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Espanyol to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.