03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Draw |
27.7% |
34.5% |
7 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
35.6% |
41.5% |
6 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
52.6% |
49.5% |
3 pts over
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna: Too Close to Call?
Too close to call on the numbers. Malaga 36%, Deportivo La Coruna 36%, the draw live at 28%.
Deportivo La Coruna slight edge (36%) | Lower-scoring game likely (64%)
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Malaga at @2.50 for this La Liga tie, with Deportivo La Coruna out at @2.90.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Deportivo La Coruna at 36%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
The lean here is towards a lower-scoring game. We make it just 36% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Malaga HT
3.10
-
Draw HT
1.95
-
Deportivo La Coruna HT
3.60
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Malaga Win |
@2.50
|
35.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@2.90
|
27.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Deportivo La Coruna Win |
@2.90
|
36.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.10
|
52.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.70
|
47.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.62
|
35.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.58
|
64.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.53
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@2.63
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.18
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Malaga under 6.5 corners
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Over 6.5 corners
82%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Malaga over 2.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
80%
@1.28
10Bet
-
Deportivo La Coruna under 1.5 goals
78%
@1.34
1xBet
-
Under 10.5 corners
78%
@1.35
Betano
-
Deportivo La Coruna over 2.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Deportivo La Coruna under 5.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
78%
@1.40
William Hill
-
Malaga or Deportivo La Coruna (double chance)
77%
@1.41
1xBet
-
Malaga under 1.5 goals
74%
@1.40
10Bet
-
Malaga or Draw (double chance)
74%
@1.42
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →