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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.5% | 61.7% | 10 pts under |
| Houston Dynamo Win | 53.3% | 60.6% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.2% | 60.6% | 2 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Houston Dynamo welcome DC United.
A MLS fixture between Houston Dynamo and DC United. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Houston Dynamo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while DC United travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Houston Dynamo edge it at 53% but a draw (24%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Houston Dynamo will be looking to make home advantage count (W5 D3 L9 at home). DC United's away record reads W3 D4 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. A concern for DC United: they're giving up chances worth 1.7 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.3 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Houston Dynamo create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. DC United create 1.1 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. DC United's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.7 a game over their last 5 vs 1.3 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Houston Dynamo average 1.3 goals per game and DC United manage 0.9. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 58% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Houston Dynamo Win | @1.70 | 53.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.70 | 23.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | DC United Win | @4.40 | 23.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 58.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 41.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.48 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Houston Dynamo the favourite with a 53.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Houston Dynamo @ 1.70, Draw @ 3.70, DC United @ 4.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Houston Dynamo vs DC United kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Houston Dynamo to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.