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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.5% | 61.7% | 10 pts under |
| Club Tijuana Win | 24.3% | 29.4% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53.4% | 57.1% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Club Tijuana know what's at stake, and so do Tigres UANL.
Club Tijuana take on Tigres UANL in the Liga MX. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Club Tijuana will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Tigres UANL travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Tigres UANL edge it at 47% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 53% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Club Tijuana Win | @3.40 | 24.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 28.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Tigres UANL Win | @1.95 | 47.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 53.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.01 | 46.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.89 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Tigres UANL the favourite with a 47.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Club Tijuana @ 3.40, Draw @ 3.10, Tigres UANL @ 1.95. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Club Tijuana vs Tigres UANL kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Tigres UANL to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.