Stoke City vs Charlton Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Tricky away day for Charlton (3rd, 6 pts) as they travel to Stoke City (21st, 0 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Charlton are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Stoke City (W0 D0 L1 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Crucially, Stoke City are in strong home form while Charlton are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Stoke City create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Charlton create 1.2 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for Stoke City: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.1 a game, well below their 1.5 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Stoke City are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Charlton manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 60%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.0 goals when they meet, with 3 of the last 4 producing three or more.
Both teams score in 61% of Stoke City's home games and 57% of Charlton's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Stoke City need points desperately. Sitting 21st in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Charlton have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 4 meetings: Stoke City have won 2, Charlton 2, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 3.0 goals per game. 3 of the last 4 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Charlton 1-0 Stoke City, Stoke City 3-0 Charlton, Stoke City 3-1 Charlton.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Stoke City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Charlton Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Stoke City vs Charlton kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 46.9% probability.