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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 36.4% | 52.1% | 16 pts under |
| Draw | 27.2% | 32.3% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Charlton Athletic and Derby County meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Neck and neck in the Championship standings. Charlton Athletic (1st, 0 pts) host Derby County (1st, 0 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Charlton Athletic will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Derby County travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Charlton Athletic at just 45%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Charlton Athletic, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Our model spots value here: Charlton Athletic to win at @2.60 (our model: 45%, bookmakers imply: 38%). A 6% edge over the market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Charlton Athletic average 1.2 goals per game and Derby County manage 1.5. Combined that's just 2.7. We make it only 36% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 52% of Charlton Athletic's home games and 65% of Derby County's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Matches involving Charlton Athletic always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Derby County will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
This has title race implications written all over it. Charlton Athletic sit 1st while Derby County are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%) and 0-1 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Charlton Athletic Win | @2.60 | 44.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Derby County Win | @2.70 | 40.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.05 | 36.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.70 | 63.6% | William Hill |
Our model makes Charlton Athletic the favourite with a 44.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Charlton Athletic @ 2.60, Draw @ 3.10, Derby County @ 2.70. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Charlton Athletic to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.