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The model makes Lask Linz 43% favourites here. Celtic carry the 31% upset.
Lask Linz have won four of their last five; Celtic are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this Champions League tie.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.57. Model probability 61% vs implied 64%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Lask Linz average 3.0 per game and Celtic chip in with 2.5. Expect an open, attacking contest.
Goals look likely here. Lask Linz average 3.0 per game (3.0 at home) and Celtic chip in with 2.5 (2.5 away). Defensively, Lask Linz concede 0.7 at home and Celtic leak 0.9 on the road. We make it 61% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%. Two or more goals at @1.17 is a steadier alternative for accas.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Lask Linz are in great shape right now, banging in 3.0 a game and only letting in 0.7. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back. Celtic are similarly well-balanced. 2.5 scored, 0.9 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
If you like Lask Linz but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.30 , which pays out if Lask Linz win or draw, covers 69% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Lask Linz Win | @1.95 | 43.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 25.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Celtic Win | @3.25 | 31.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.53 | 55.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.40 | 44.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.57 | 61.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.45 | 39.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.38 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.55 | - | Bet365 |
Limited recent meetings (1), too small a sample for a reliable head-to-head split.
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 3.66 · £5 returns £18.29
Our model makes Lask Linz the favourite with a 43.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Lask Linz @ 1.95, Draw @ 3.60, Celtic @ 3.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Lask Linz vs Celtic kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Champions League.