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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 28.6% | 33.3% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45.6% | 48.1% | 2 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Cambridge United and Wigan Athletic meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Cambridge United take on Wigan Athletic in the League One. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Cambridge United will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Wigan Athletic travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Cambridge United at just 48%. With the draw at 29%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Cambridge United, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Our model spots value here: Cambridge United to win at @2.38 (our model: 48%, bookmakers imply: 42%). A 6% edge over the market.
This one is wide open according to the bookmakers. Cambridge United at @2.38 (48%) and Wigan Athletic at @3.00 (39%) are closely matched, with the draw at @3.00 (29%) very much in play. When the odds are this tight, home advantage could be the deciding factor.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 46%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cambridge United Win | @2.38 | 47.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 28.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Wigan Athletic Win | @3.00 | 38.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.15 | 45.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.65 | 54.4% | William Hill |
Our model makes Cambridge United the favourite with a 47.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Cambridge United @ 2.38, Draw @ 3.00, Wigan Athletic @ 3.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cambridge United vs Wigan Athletic kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Cambridge United to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.