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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42.7% | 60.6% | 18 pts under |
| Burnley Win | 28.7% | 38.5% | 10 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Burnley welcome West Ham United.
Neck and neck in the Championship standings. Burnley (1st, 0 pts) host West Ham United (1st, 0 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Burnley will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while West Ham United travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: West Ham United at 44%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The gap in chance quality is clear: West Ham United come out at -0.2 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -1.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Burnley create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 2.0), leaving them -1.1 a game on the balance. West Ham United create 1.2 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.2. On the quality of chances, West Ham United look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Burnley average 0.7 goals per game and West Ham United manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.1. We make it only 43% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is a long shot at 29%, mainly because West Ham United fail to score in 43% of their games, which drags the number right down.
Both teams score in 42% of Burnley's home games and 29% of West Ham United's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The stakes are high for Burnley at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. West Ham United face a tough afternoon.
This has title race implications written all over it. Burnley sit 1st while West Ham United are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (12%) and 1-1 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Burnley Win | @2.80 | 28.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | West Ham United Win | @2.38 | 43.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 42.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 57.3% | William Hill |
Our model makes West Ham United the favourite with a 43.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Burnley @ 2.80, Draw @ 3.25, West Ham United @ 2.38. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Burnley vs West Ham United kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 16:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is West Ham United to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.