Who is favourite to win Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?

Our model rates Bristol Rovers as the favourite with a 53.2% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Bristol Rovers 53.2%, draw 24.4%, Newport County 22.4%.

Where can I watch Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?

Check official League Two broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 54.2% probability and Under 2.5 goals 45.8%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

69% verified · 778 picks League Two Saturday 22 August 2026, 12:30

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County Predictions & Odds

B Bristol Rovers 53.2% @1.62

VS Draw 24.4%

N Newport County 22.4% @4.80

Our model call Leans Bristol Rovers, but only just A 53% call, draw at 24%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Bristol Rovers 53% 1.62 Draw 24% 3.90 Newport County 22% 4.80

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 46% 2.00 Over 2.5 54% 1.80 Over 1.5 @1.25

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 52% 1.95 Yes 48% 1.75

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Bristol Rovers Win	53.2%	64.5%	11 pts under
Both Teams to Score	48.4%	58.1%	10 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	54.2%	58.1%	4 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Analysing Bristol Rovers vs Newport County: Who Wins?

Bristol Rovers 53%, the draw 24%, Newport County 22%. That's the shape of this one.

Bristol Rovers slight edge (53%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Bristol Rovers have lost their last two; Newport County are unbeaten in their last four. The visitors bring the sharper form into this League Two tie.

Our verdict

Marginal call: Bristol Rovers at just 53%. With the draw at 24%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Bristol Rovers, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

📉

Home Wobble Bristol Rovers arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early

▸ Form & goals

Goals are a tough one to call here. Bristol Rovers are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Newport County manage 2.3 (2.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 54%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.

Both teams score in 35% of Bristol Rovers's home games and 57% of Newport County's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Newport County have goals in them (2.3 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

In the last 10 meetings: Bristol Rovers have won 5, Newport County 4, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.1 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Bristol Rovers 3-0 Newport County, Newport County 2-3 Bristol Rovers, Newport County 0-1 Bristol Rovers.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Bristol Rovers HT 2.05
Draw HT 2.30
Newport County HT 5.00

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Bristol Rovers Win	@1.62	53.2%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.90	24.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Newport County Win	@4.80	22.4%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.75	48.4%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.95	51.6%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.80	54.2%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.00	45.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.25	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.10	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.37	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Bristol Rovers

2L streak

Last 4 LLDW

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 46% FTS 33%

Newport County

1W streak 4 unbeaten

Last 4 WDWW

Clean sheets 15% BTTS 54% FTS 37%

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County Head to Head

5 Home Wins 1 Draws 4 Away Wins

3.1 Avg Goals

6/10 BTTS

6/10 Over 2.5

2026-01-31 Bristol Rovers 3-0 Newport County

2025-09-06 Bristol Rovers 3-2 Newport County

2023-11-14 Bristol Rovers 1-0 Newport County

2022-03-05 Bristol Rovers 0-1 Newport County

2021-10-23 Bristol Rovers 1-3 Newport County

2020-08-21 Bristol Rovers 1-1 Newport County

2016-03-19 Bristol Rovers 4-1 Newport County

2015-10-24 Bristol Rovers 1-4 Newport County

2014-01-25 Bristol Rovers 3-1 Newport County

2013-08-17 Bristol Rovers 0-1 Newport County

Full Bristol Rovers vs Newport County head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 7.3%

1-0 6.0%

2-0 4.2%

3-1 3.3%

3-2 2.9%

3-0 1.9%

4-1 1.1%

4-2 1.0%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Bristol Rovers or Newport County (double chance) 85% @1.28 Bet365
Bristol Rovers over 4 corners 85% @1.18 1xBet
Over 7.5 corners 84% @1.27 Superbet
Over 0.5 second half goals 83% @1.23 Betano
Under 12 corners 83% @1.20 1xBet
Bristol Rovers over 1 goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Newport County over 3 corners 83% @1.21 1xBet
Over 1.5 goals 82% @1.28 Pinnacle
Newport County under 1.5 goals 82% @1.26 Unibet
Bristol Rovers under 7 corners 82% @1.22 1xBet
Under 2 second half goals 79% @1.27 Marathon Bet
Bristol Rovers under 2.5 goals 78% @1.33 Bet365

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Bristol Rovers v Newport County builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 80% @ 1.26
2 Over 1.5 Goals 75% @ 1.33

@1.67 £10 returns £16.75

View full breakdown

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 778 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Bristol Rovers vs Newport County: FAQs

Who will win Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?

Our model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite with a 53.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?

Best available odds: Bristol Rovers @ 1.62, Draw @ 3.90, Newport County @ 4.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Bristol Rovers vs Newport County kick off?

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League Two.

Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.4% probability.

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Bristol Rovers to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.