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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Bahia arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
A Brasileirão Série A meeting between Bahia (7th, 60 pts) and Vasco da Gama (14th, 45 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Bahia will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Vasco da Gama travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Bahia's home record this season is formidable. W14 D3 L2 from 19, scoring 1.7 goals per game at home. Vasco da Gama, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W5 D2 L12 from 19 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Bahia look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.8 a game, but they're only converting 1.3 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. Bahia have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.2 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.8. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bahia create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Vasco da Gama create 1.0 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bahia. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Bahia should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game but they're only getting 1.3 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Bahia are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.2 a game over the last 5 vs 1.8 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Bahia are scoring 1.3 a game (1.7 of those at home) and Vasco da Gama manage 1.4 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bahia Win | @1.85 | 50.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Vasco da Gama Win | @3.80 | 25.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 52.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.85 | 47.5% | William Hill |
Our model makes Bahia the favourite with a 50.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Bahia @ 1.85, Draw @ 3.50, Vasco da Gama @ 3.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.