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Monterrey 58%, the draw 24%, Atletico San Luis 18%. That's the shape of this one.
Monterrey have won four of their last five; Atletico San Luis are winless in their last six. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Liga MX tie.
Our PickMonterrey to win at @1.44. Model probability 58% vs implied 69%. The market is 12pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals look likely here. Monterrey average 2.4 per game (2.4 at home) and Atletico San Luis chip in with 1.2 (1.2 away). Defensively, Monterrey concede 1.6 at home and Atletico San Luis leak 2.5 on the road. We make it 65% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.
Monterrey are all-out attack: 2.4 goals a game, but they leak 1.6 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Atletico San Luis, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Monterrey have won 4, Atletico San Luis 4, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.7 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Monterrey 1-2 Atletico San Luis, Atletico San Luis 0-1 Monterrey, Monterrey 3-1 Atletico San Luis.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Monterrey Win | @1.44 | 57.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 23.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atletico San Luis Win | @5.50 | 18.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.57 | 54.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.20 | 45.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.53 | 64.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.48 | 35.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.61 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 2.57 · £5 returns £12.86
Our model makes Monterrey the favourite with a 57.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Monterrey @ 1.44, Draw @ 4.00, Atletico San Luis @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis kicks off on Monday 31 August 2026 at 03:00 in the Liga MX.