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The model makes Tigres UANL 58% favourites here. Atlante FC carry the 20% upset.
Tigres UANL are winless in their last five; Atlante FC have taken five points from their last four. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Liga MX tie.
Our PickTigres UANL to win at @1.40. Model probability 58% vs implied 71%. The market is 13pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Tigres UANL are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Atlante FC manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Tigres UANL are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Atlante FC, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Tigres UANL Win | @1.40 | 58.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 22.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atlante FC Win | @5.50 | 19.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 58.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.19 | 42.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.47 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 3.01 · £5 returns £15.03
Our model makes Tigres UANL the favourite with a 58.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Tigres UANL @ 1.40, Draw @ 4.20, Atlante FC @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Tigres UANL vs Atlante FC kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.