03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
48.1% |
57.8% |
10 pts under
|
| Draw |
28.4% |
34.1% |
6 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
48.4% |
51.3% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Analysing AFC Wimbledon vs Reading: Who Wins?
AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 41% of their games, and now the model gives Reading a 39% chance on the road.
AFC Wimbledon slight edge (45%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
AFC Wimbledon have taken four points from their last four; Reading are winless in their last four. Form gives little away going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. AFC Wimbledon edge it at 45% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
Our model spots value here: AFC Wimbledon to win at @2.50 (our model: 45%, bookmakers imply: 40%). A 5% edge over the market.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
AFC Wimbledon fail to score in 41% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Reading's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
AFC Wimbledon average 0.5 goals per game and Reading manage 1.3. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it 48% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 43% of AFC Wimbledon's home games and 70% of Reading's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 5 meetings: AFC Wimbledon have won 3, Reading 2, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 3 of the last 5 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: AFC Wimbledon 3-2 Reading, Reading 2-1 AFC Wimbledon, Reading 1-2 AFC Wimbledon.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
AFC Wimbledon HT
3.10
-
Draw HT
2.10
-
Reading HT
3.10
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
AFC Wimbledon vs Reading Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
AFC Wimbledon Win |
@2.50
|
45.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.20
|
28.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Reading Win |
@2.60
|
39.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
48.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
51.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.05
|
48.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.81
|
51.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.29
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
AFC Wimbledon vs Reading Head to Head
3 Home Wins
0 Draws
2 Away Wins
2.8
Avg Goals
3/5
BTTS
3/5
Over 2.5
2026-02-07
AFC Wimbledon 3-2 Reading
2025-08-26
AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Reading
2025-08-16
AFC Wimbledon 2-1 Reading
2023-07-08
AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Reading
2022-07-19
AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Reading
Full AFC Wimbledon vs Reading head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
7.2%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
4.0%
3-1
2.5%
3-2
2.0%
3-0
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 7.5 corners
84%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
84%
@1.29
Superbet
-
Reading under 6 corners
84%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Under 2 second half goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
81%
@1.27
Betano
-
Under 3.5 goals
80%
@1.29
Pinnacle
-
AFC Wimbledon or Reading (double chance)
80%
@1.33
William Hill
-
AFC Wimbledon under 6 corners
80%
@1.25
1xBet
-
Reading over 3 corners
80%
@1.25
1xBet
-
AFC Wimbledon over 0.5 goals
78%
@1.33
Betano
-
AFC Wimbledon over 3.5 corners
78%
@1.36
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
78%
@1.34
BetVictor
Build a slip from these markets →