01The read
Analysing AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia: Who Wins?
The model makes AEK Athens FC 56% favourites here. Levski Sofia carry the 20% upset.
AEK Athens FC have won three of their last six; Levski Sofia are unbeaten in their last six. Form gives little away going into this Champions League tie.
Our pick
Our PickAEK Athens FC to win at @1.55. Model probability 56% vs implied 65%. The market is 9pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
AEK Athens FC keep clean sheets in 50% of games. One of the tightest defences around
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. AEK Athens FC are scoring 2.2 a game (2.2 of those at home) and Levski Sofia manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 47%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 42%. Two or more goals at @1.33 is a steadier alternative for accas.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
AEK Athens FC are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Levski Sofia, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Levski Sofia prefer to keep things tight (0.3 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for AEK Athens FC against this setup. Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like AEK Athens FC but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.12 , which pays out if AEK Athens FC win or draw, covers 80% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8%).
First Half Result
-
AEK Athens FC HT
2.05
-
Draw HT
2.15
-
Levski Sofia HT
6.50
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
AEK Athens FC Win |
@1.55
|
55.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
24.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Levski Sofia Win |
@5.80
|
19.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.00
|
41.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.73
|
58.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.10
|
47.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.80
|
52.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
10.3%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
3.3%
3-0
2.7%
3-2
2.1%
4-1
1.0%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
AEK Athens FC or Levski Sofia (double chance)
85%
@1.29
William Hill
-
Under 2 second half goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
82%
@1.28
10Bet
-
Over 6.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
81%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Under 11.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
AEK Athens FC under 2.5 goals
80%
@1.29
Unibet
-
AEK Athens FC over 1 goals
80%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Levski Sofia under 1 goals
78%
@1.30
1xBet
-
Over 1.5 goals
77%
@1.38
Betano
-
AEK Athens FC under 7.5 corners
76%
@1.32
Unibet
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
74%
@1.40
10Bet
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