How accurate was your model at the World Cup?

Every World Cup prediction we made was logged before kick-off and settled against the real result — win or loss, nothing hidden. This page shows the full verified record: hit rates by market, calibration by confidence band, and group-vs-knockout splits.

Do you show your losing predictions too?

Yes. Our whole model is built on a public, settled ledger — we publish losses alongside wins. No cherry-picking. That's the difference between us and the typical 'AI tipster'.

World Cup 2026 · The receipts

What the World Cup told us

Every prediction we made was logged before kick-off and settled against the real result — win or loss, nothing hidden. Here's our model's actual record across the tournament.

69% verified · see the full ledger

01 Calibration — do our numbers mean what they say?

WC 70-80% picks: actual 91% (n=11)

10/11 hit, band midpoint 75%

actual 91% model 75% n=11

WC 80-90% picks: actual 100% (n=11)

11/11 hit, band midpoint 85%

actual 100% model 85% n=11

WC 60-70% picks: actual 50% (n=6)

3/6 hit, band midpoint 65%

actual 50% model 65% n=6 · thin sample

02 By market — where the model landed

WC DOUBLE CHANCE HOME DRAW: model said 82%, actual 100% (n=8)

8/8 hit

actual 100% model 82% n=8

WC Over 2.5: model said 69%, actual 60% (n=5)

3/5 hit

actual 60% model 69% n=5 · thin sample

WC Away win: model said 63%, actual 60% (n=5)

3/5 hit

actual 60% model 63% n=5 · thin sample

03 Group vs knockout

WC group-stage picks landing 77% (model 75%, n=22)

17/22 hit

actual 77% n=22

04 How the tournament actually broke

WC results so far: 13 home / 7 draw / 6 away (n=26)

home 50%, draw 27%, away 23%

n=26

This is the difference

No cherry-picking, no hiding losses — just a public, settled record. That's why you can trust the next prediction.

See today's verified predictions →