World Cup 2026 · The receipts

What the World Cup told us

Every prediction we made was logged before kick-off and settled against the real result, win or loss, nothing hidden. Here's our model's actual record across the tournament.

69% verified · see the full ledger
01 Calibration: do our numbers mean what they say?
WC 70-80% picks: actual 78% (n=18)
14/18 hit, band midpoint 75%
actual 78% model 75% n=18
WC 80-90% picks: actual 100% (n=9)
9/9 hit, band midpoint 85%
actual 100% model 85% n=9
WC 60-70% picks: actual 50% (n=6)
3/6 hit, band midpoint 65%
actual 50% model 65% n=6 · thin sample
02 By market: where the model landed
WC DOUBLE CHANCE HOME DRAW: model said 80%, actual 89% (n=9)
8/9 hit
actual 89% model 80% n=9
WC DOUBLE CHANCE HOME AWAY: model said 78%, actual 86% (n=7)
6/7 hit
actual 86% model 78% n=7 · thin sample
WC Over 1.5: model said 74%, actual 67% (n=6)
4/6 hit
actual 67% model 74% n=6 · thin sample
WC Over 2.5: model said 69%, actual 60% (n=5)
3/5 hit
actual 60% model 69% n=5 · thin sample
WC Away win: model said 63%, actual 60% (n=5)
3/5 hit
actual 60% model 63% n=5 · thin sample
03 Group vs knockout
WC group-stage picks landing 75% (model 75%, n=20)
15/20 hit
actual 75% n=20
04 How the tournament actually broke
WC results so far: 15 home / 7 draw / 9 away (n=31)
home 48%, draw 23%, away 29%
n=31

This is the difference

No cherry-picking, no hiding losses, just a public, settled record. That's why you can trust the next prediction.

See today's verified predictions →