Viking vs Aalesund Predictions & Odds
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Viking are unbeaten in their last five; Aalesund are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Eliteserien tie.
Aalesund have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Viking average 2.3 per game and Aalesund chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest. One thing to keep in mind about Viking. They're scoring 2.3 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.7. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+1.1), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Viking create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. Aalesund create 0.8 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.8. The underlying numbers clearly favour Viking. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Viking are scoring 2.3 goals a game off chances worth just 1.7. That's +1.1 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Viking average 2.3 goals per game and Aalesund manage 2.0. Combined that's just 4.3. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Viking are all-out attack: 2.3 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Aalesund, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Aalesund are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Viking Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Aalesund Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Viking vs Aalesund kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 17:00 in the Eliteserien.