Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City SC Win | 63.6% | 75.2% | 12 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 68.3% | 73.5% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. St. Louis City SC and Sporting Kansas City meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A MLS fixture between St. Louis City SC and Sporting Kansas City. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. St. Louis City SC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sporting Kansas City travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
The data leans towards St. Louis City SC (64%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Sporting Kansas City have the tools to make this uncomfortable. We're calling it 2-1.
Our PickSt. Louis City SC to win at @1.36. Model probability 64% vs implied 74% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. St. Louis City SC average 0.0 goals per game and Sporting Kansas City manage 1.4. Combined that's just 1.4. We make it only 68% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
St. Louis City SC do it the hard way — only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | St. Louis City SC Win | @1.36 | 63.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.75 | 19.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sporting Kansas City Win | @6.50 | 17.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.36 | 68.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.80 | 31.7% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes St. Louis City SC the favourite with a 63.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: St. Louis City SC @ 1.36, Draw @ 4.75, Sporting Kansas City @ 6.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
St. Louis City SC vs Sporting Kansas City kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.
Our top prediction is St. Louis City SC to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.