Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal Win | 49.8% | 57.1% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61.2% | 64.5% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when CF Montreal welcome Toronto FC.
CF Montreal take on Toronto FC in the MLS. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. CF Montreal will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Toronto FC travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. CF Montreal edge it at 50% but a draw (24%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with. Predicted scoreline: 2-1.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.62. Model probability 61% vs implied 62% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
CF Montreal will be looking to make home advantage count (W2 D6 L9 at home). Toronto FC's away record reads W3 D7 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. A concern for Toronto FC: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
CF Montreal create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Toronto FC create 1.1 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Toronto FC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. CF Montreal average 1.0 goals per game and Toronto FC manage 1.1. Combined that's just 2.1. We make it only 61% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.4 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | CF Montreal Win | @1.83 | 49.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 23.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Toronto FC Win | @3.75 | 26.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.62 | 61.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 38.8% | William Hill |
Our model makes CF Montreal the favourite with a 49.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: CF Montreal @ 1.83, Draw @ 3.60, Toronto FC @ 3.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.
Our top prediction is CF Montreal to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.