Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC Win | 64.5% | 75.2% | 11 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62.0% | 65.4% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write — Nashville SC host Atlanta United FC.
A MLS fixture between Nashville SC and Atlanta United FC. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Nashville SC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Atlanta United FC travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Nashville SC shade it at 65%, though Atlanta United FC won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Nashville SC with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option. Predicted scoreline: 2-1.
Our PickNashville SC to win at @1.36. Model probability 65% vs implied 74% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Nashville SC's home record this season is formidable. W12 D3 L3 from 18, scoring 2.1 goals per game at home. Atlanta United FC, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W1 D5 L11 from 17 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Nashville SC are scoring 1.6 a game (2.1 of those at home) and Atlanta United FC manage 1.1 (0.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more — we make it 62% — so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Nashville SC Win | @1.36 | 64.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.60 | 19.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atlanta United FC Win | @7.00 | 15.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.60 | 62.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.25 | 38.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes Nashville SC the favourite with a 64.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Nashville SC @ 1.36, Draw @ 4.60, Atlanta United FC @ 7.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Nashville SC vs Atlanta United FC kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 01:00 in the MLS.
Our top prediction is Nashville SC to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.