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Sporting CP 69%, the draw 16%, Vitória SC 13%. That's the shape of this one.
Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last five; Vitória SC have lost three in a row. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Primeira Liga tie.
Our PickSporting CP to win at @1.18. Model probability 69% vs implied 85%. The market is 16pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals look likely here. Sporting CP average 2.6 per game (3.0 at home) and Vitória SC chip in with 0.9 (0.9 away). Defensively, Sporting CP concede 0.6 at home and Vitória SC leak 1.6 on the road. We make it 67% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Sporting CP are in great shape right now, banging in 2.6 a game and only letting in 0.7. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sporting CP Win | @1.18 | 68.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @6.50 | 16.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Vitória SC Win | @12.00 | 13.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 46.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.80 | 53.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.44 | 67.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.88 | 32.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.75 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 2.92 · £5 returns £14.62
Our model makes Sporting CP the favourite with a 68.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Sporting CP @ 1.18, Draw @ 6.50, Vitória SC @ 12.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sporting CP vs Vitória SC kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 20:15 in the Primeira Liga.