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The model makes Southend 51% favourites here. Solihull Moors carry the 22% upset.
The bookmakers open Solihull Moors at @3.80 for this National League tie, with Southend out at @1.85.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 56% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Solihull Moors Win | @3.80 | 21.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 28.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Southend Win | @1.85 | 50.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 52.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 47.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 55.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 44.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.45 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Southend the favourite with a 50.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Solihull Moors @ 3.80, Draw @ 3.40, Southend @ 1.85. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Solihull Moors vs Southend kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 in the National League.