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Form, fitness, fine margins. Santos Laguna and Guadalajara Chivas meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A Liga MX fixture between Santos Laguna and Guadalajara Chivas. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Santos Laguna will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Guadalajara Chivas travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickGuadalajara Chivas to win at @1.62. Model probability 58% vs implied 62%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Santos Laguna are scoring 1.2 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Guadalajara Chivas manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 54%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Santos Laguna Win | @5.00 | 18.3% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 23.3% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Guadalajara Chivas Win | @1.62 | 58.4% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 49.3% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.07 | 50.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 53.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 46.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.47 | - | Bet365 |
The bookmakers make Guadalajara Chivas the favourite here. This league is new to our model, so we show the odds and an early read rather than a rated pick until we have built a verified record.
Best available odds: Santos Laguna @ 5.00, Draw @ 4.00, Guadalajara Chivas @ 1.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.