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The model makes Alloa Athletic 42% favourites here. Queen of the South carry the 30% upset.
The bookmakers open Queen of the South at @2.62 for this Scottish League One tie, with Alloa Athletic out at @2.50.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 52% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Queen of the South Win | @2.62 | 29.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 28.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Alloa Athletic Win | @2.50 | 41.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 52.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 48.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.80 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Alloa Athletic the favourite with a 41.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Queen of the South @ 2.62, Draw @ 3.10, Alloa Athletic @ 2.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Queen of the South vs Alloa Athletic kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Scottish League One.