Portsmouth vs Derby Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Portsmouth have lost their last two; Derby have lost three in a row. Neither side arrives in rhythm for this Championship tie.
Portsmouth will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D0 L1 at home). Derby's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. One thing to keep in mind about Portsmouth. They're scoring 1.4 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 0.9. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.6), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Portsmouth create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.6 a game on the balance. Derby create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Derby look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Portsmouth are scoring 1.4 goals a game off chances worth just 0.9. That's +0.6 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Portsmouth average 1.4 goals per game and Derby manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.8. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 48% of Portsmouth's home games and 65% of Derby's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Portsmouth Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Derby Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Portsmouth vs Derby kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.