Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
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Over 9.5 Match Corners
54% (model)
Corners: Paris Saint Germain avg 7.8 for/3.4 against, Aston Villa avg 4.4 for/4.3 against → expected 10.0 match corners
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Over 3.5 Match Cards
37% (model)
Cards: Paris Saint Germain avg 1.8/game, Aston Villa avg 1.3/game → expected 3.1 match cards
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Over 20.5 Match Fouls
46% (model)
Fouls: Paris Saint Germain avg 8.8/game, Aston Villa avg 11.4/game → expected 20.2 match fouls
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Over 26.5 Match Shots
71% (model)
Shots: Paris Saint Germain avg 18.0/game, Aston Villa avg 11.6/game → expected 29.6 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🔥
Aston Villa are on a 3-game winning streak
01The read
Paris Saint Germain and Aston Villa Promise Fireworks. Preview & Prediction
The model makes Paris Saint Germain 49% favourites here. Aston Villa carry the 25% upset.
Paris Saint Germain have taken 8 points from their last five; Aston Villa have won three straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this UEFA Super Cup tie.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
Paris Saint Germain keep clean sheets in 45% of games. One of the tightest defences around
🔥
Travelling Hot
Aston Villa bring a 3-game winning run into this one
▸ Form & goals
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Paris Saint Germain average 2.0 per game and Aston Villa chip in with 2.4. Expect an open, attacking contest. Aston Villa could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.4 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.4. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Paris Saint Germain create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Aston Villa create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Paris Saint Germain. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Aston Villa are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.4 goals vs chance quality of 1.4). Both runs could cool off at once. A worry for Paris Saint Germain: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.7 a game, well below their 2.2 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Paris Saint Germain are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Aston Villa manage 2.4 (2.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
▸ Team news & context
Paris Saint Germain are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Aston Villa, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Aston Villa have goals in them (2.4 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
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Paris Saint Germain HT
2.20
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Draw HT
2.25
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Aston Villa HT
4.80
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Paris Saint Germain · xG
For: 2.15/g
Against: 1.01/g
📊 Aston Villa · xG
For: 1.37/g
Against: 1.53/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.43/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Paris Saint Germain Win |
@1.75
|
49.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.70
|
25.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Aston Villa Win |
@4.33
|
25.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
47.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
52.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
51.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.00
|
48.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.80
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.36
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
7.9%
1-0
5.6%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
3.7%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.7%
4-2
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Over 1.5 goals
Smart
81%
@1.32
Betano
-
Paris Saint Germain under 7.5 corners
Smart
83%
@1.24
Superbet
-
Over 2.5 cards
74%
@1.47
Betano
-
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1+ shots on target
71%
@1.40
Bet365
-
Ousmane Dembele 1+ shots on target
69%
@1.44
Bet365
Combined 4.85
· £5 returns
£24.25
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Emiliano Buendia 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 7 shots on target
84%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
83%
@1.25
William Hill
-
Paris Saint Germain or Aston Villa (double chance)
83%
@1.29
1xBet
-
Fabian Ruiz 1+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Paris Saint Germain under 7.5 corners
83%
@1.24
Superbet
-
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 corners
82%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.32
Betano
-
Aston Villa over 2.5 corners
81%
@1.30
Superbet
-
Aston Villa under 5.5 corners
81%
@1.32
Unibet
-
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 goals
80%
@1.27
Marathon Bet
-
Aston Villa under 1.5 goals
80%
@1.30
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →