IF Elfsborg vs Sirius Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture — check back closer to kickoff.
Three points on the line and a story to write — IF Elfsborg host Sirius.
Neck and neck in the Allsvenskan standings. IF Elfsborg (8th, 40 pts) host Sirius (9th, 39 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. IF Elfsborg will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sirius travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: IF Elfsborg at 0%, but the draw sits at 0%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine. We're calling it 1-1.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
IF Elfsborg will be looking to make home advantage count (W7 D3 L5 at home). Sirius's away record reads W4 D4 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
IF Elfsborg create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them -0.6 a game on the balance. Sirius create 2.3 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +1.1. On the quality of chances, Sirius look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. IF Elfsborg average 1.5 goals per game and Sirius manage 1.8. Combined that's just 3.3. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. IF Elfsborg and Sirius together create chances worth 3.6 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
Sirius have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.7 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | IF Elfsborg Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Sirius Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up — check back closer to kick-off.
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 15:30 in the Allsvenskan.